The Eschatian End to an Extraterrestrial Civilization

If you’re familiar with Dr David Kipping of Columbia University you may have seen his appearances on various YouTube channels or his Cool Worlds channel talking about extraterrestrial life. Kipping recently published a very short paper hypothesizing how we might first detect an extraterrestrial civilization based on observational bias. But, before we get into that let’s first pronounce the new word derived by Kipping - eschatian (es-ska-ti-un) derived from the word eschatology (es-ska-ta-le-gee)^[1] meaning the final events in the world or history. Typically eschatological discussions are reserved for Christian theology but the word does serve some purpose to what some may coin “end times”.

So how does that definition tie to extraterrestrials? Kipping hypothesizes that our first detection of signals may be very similar to other types of large and loud events in then universe (think supernovae explosions, gamma-ray bursts, etc) or objects that emits large amounts of energy that can be detected. Add to that astronomers are burdened with something called the Malmquist bias meaning we detect the brightest, most energetic objects first and lower energy objects are hidden until more sensitive technology is developed.

Given those conditions our first detections of any extraterrestrial civilization may very well be its end - the “loud” burst of energy from a nuclear war or some other catastrophic event. As Kipping notes 

"rare examples of loud civilizations will truly be more likely to be detected, against the backdrop of what is (presumably) a more abundant quiescent population."

He goes on to create a simple toy mathematical model based on the fraction of loud and quiet civilizations and their possible time windows of extreme energy output from an event. In his discussion, the suggestion is some wide field observations may be able to detect such transient events.

This is an interesting hypothesis that touches Level 2 of the exoastronomy categorization. Granted, this is highly speculative without actual values to use for the model. However, these are the types of scientific speculations we need to see more of. His paper can be found here. (I may do a deeper dive on the model in a later post)

1. Note that I'm not using standard dictionary pronunciation guides here↩

Washington Post Skeptic Op-Ed on UAPs

NASA UAP Study Committee

Recently, the Washington Post ran an editorial speculating about the origin and beliefs surrounding UAPs. If you’ve looked at my categorical breakdown of how to classify any information regarding UFOs or UAPs, you’ll see this clearly falls under my lowest Level 4, or, non-verifiable conjecture or opinion (see the definitions of levels here). Now, you might disagree with me and the author based on all of the testimonial evidence provided by government hearings. But, Mr. Shermer is espousing his own opinion on the matter as a contributor to Skeptic Magazine.

As usual, even the small additions of wording like “tinfoil-hat-wearing kooks” (even when written in the negative as “not kooks”) and “Bart Simpson balloon” still pushes the public stigma against positive and constructive conversations regarding the phenomena. Those types of small stereotypes printed in the negative do not help with modifying the conversation towards positive, scientific and cultural discussions.

The real meat of my disagreement comes in the punch line “could UAPs really be space aliens?” And, as usual, the extraterrestrial hypothesis is thrown under the bus with the tired old skeptic standard - distances between stars is too far, grainy photographs, etc. What’s interesting is why I consider this a Level 4 analysis in my rating system. The answer is that it is just as easy to post a similar op-ed with a different viewpoint using the identical argument. In fact, the entire article could be exactly the same except for the last 2 paragraphs that focus on religious-like beliefs due to declining religiosity. These could be rewritten to emphasize stronger evidential analysis while compiling scientific evidence (moving the conversation to Level 3).

If you’ve read this far you probably think I’m in complete disagreement with his opinion. I’m not. It’s more about the tone of the discussion and where we need to focus on both rational and scientific investigation without throwing the old stones (that I’ve been seeing since the 1960s).

Webb on the Forefront of Earth-like Exoplanet Discoveries

After analyzing data from NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), the research team led by Kevin Stevenson and Jacob Lustig-Yaeger from the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland chose to observe the exoplanet LHS 475 b using the NASA/ESA/CSA James Webb Space Telescope. With only two transit observations, Webb's Near-Infrared Spectrograph (NIRSpec) captured the planet and confirmed its existence.

LHS 475 b is 41 light years away with a radius nearly equal to that of Earth and an orbital period of two days around an M-type (M3.5V) star in the southern hemisphere constellation of Octans. While the observation couldn't fully identify what atmosphere is present on the planet, it isn't a thick methane-dominated atmosphere. But, there is a possible carbon dioxide atmosphere, which is contrary to expectations due to its compact nature. Further observations with more precise measurements are being planned for this summer in order to distinguish between a pure carbon dioxide atmosphere and no atmosphere at all.

Clearly we're on the cusp of some significant exoplanet discoveries!

You can read more here 

Swarming for Extraterrestrials

Interesting idea out of NASA's Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) - a robotics engineer has been awarded Phase II funding for miniaturized micro-swimmers that could be deployed through an ice probe beneath the ice surfaces of Europa or Enceladus. The swarm of swimming robots only inches in dimensions could explore ice-covered ocean worlds much faster than individual robotic missions when searching for signs of life.

Mars Atmospheric Pressure affecting Ingenuity

Seasonal pressure variation on Mars

A very interesting update on the Mars 2020 mission appeared recently - specifically the Ingenuity helicopter's ability to fly in relationship to Mars' atmospheric pressure. The atmospheric density of Jezero crater is dropping. 

Seasonally, the atmospheric pressure on Mars varies approximates 25-30% peak-to-peak (Smith 2008) due to the exchange of CO2 with the polar ice cap. Ingenuity was designed for flights in atmospheric densities of 1.2-1.5% of Earth's. However, the density may drop to 1.0% requiring some extra spin-up of the blades to stop any aerodynamic stalling.

This does imply some considerations on how atmospheric variability might affect habitability when deeper exoplanet data is analyzed (Linsenmeier et al. 2015 have a good overview)

You can read more about the Ingenuity issues here.

Avi Loeb Continues to Push the Science of ET

Oumuamua - Credit ESO M. Kornmesser

It's great to see a respected Harvard scientist push the envelope on extraterrestrial life. Avi Loeb was chastised for his speculation on Oumuamua but has bounced back with backing for his Galileo Project - "the search for extraterrestrial technological signatures of Extraterrestrial Technological Civilizations (ETCs) from accidental or anecdotal observations".

 

Loeb published an interesting op ed in Scientific American yesterday outlining his opinions on AI-enabled self-replicating technologies exploring the galaxy and how we might be able to detect these extraterrestrial objects. It's a short read but demonstrates the core idea of his project.

 

Loeb is no lightweight here and has published a number of scientific papers (one example Lingam & Loeb 2019) working through the problems of alien panspermia, probabilities of encounters and implications of the galactic environments on extraterrestrial life.

ExoAstronomy Next Steps

ESA/Hubble,
M. Kornmesser

I've been thinking about where to go with this blog for quite a while now. So many new things and ideas have popped up in the last year of Covid its been difficult to focus on a particular topic - to name a few: UAPs and Government releases, James Webb Telescope, Avi Loeb's Galileo Project, Mars 2020, Cambrian evolution, new ocean exoplanets, reassessment of the Drake Equation, etc.

As I noted earlier, if anything, it is more than apparent that extraterrestrial life is more than just a scientific problem, it is a sociological problem (there's a full blog post being drafted just on that point alone). But the problem is exciting because it is becoming readily apparent that we will discover some form of alien life soon. The implications are immense and hopefully, I will be able to keep you updated here!

Extraterrestrial Music - I've Seen the Saucers

A bit of fun on a Saturday. In 1974 was Elton John talking to the Pentagon? There aren't many songs about extraterrestrials but this one is a good one from his Caribou album...