Can Fireflies Provide a Pattern for Detection of Extraterrestrials?

Is the human search for extraterrestrial life too constrained by anthropomorphic biases? In a recent paper, Brooks, et al. (2026) propose a novel method of searching for alien signals through flashing patterns that present some form of coherence by structure but not necessarily decodable.

Take, for example, the flashing patterns of fireflies. These patterns can signal the presence of species in noisy environments along with presence and availability within a certain region. When speculating about non-human intelligence, the authors suggest that extraterrestrials could evolve in a similar manner of evolutionary tension with the need to identify themselves in noisy astrophysical environments.

Utilizing pulsars as an example "noisy" background astrophysical environment, the authors then formalize an approach to compare the ordered nature of pulsar detection to possible ETI structured signals. To identify the pattern in the noise, the authors assign a cost weight based on how fireflies balance signal pattern with energy consumption (think how fireflies do not want to be too bright to attract predators but also have to signal each other). These type of signals should have distinct characteristics as sparse yet structured patterns.

This is a fascinating approach that I think has some merit. Even if ETI doesn't have a firefly-like pattern, the method could reveal other possible signals. Definitely a Level 2 idea.

Read more here: A firefly-inspired model for detecting the alien

Challenges for Determining Exoplanet Atmospheres

Attempting to determine the precise compositions of exoplanets has a number of significant challenges. Even some of the more recent works utilizing the James Webb Space Telescope are not quite at the necessary noise resolution limits to obtain the precise spectra of nearby sub-Neptunes and terrestrial exoplanets.

One of the more recent methodologies to extract the spectral signal from the noise has been to use Bayesian modeling techniques. This statistical method utilizes the inferences of difference chemical species to attempt to rule out competing molecular spectral overlaps and end up with a highly probable answer of what produced the spectral absorption line. The problem is that Bayesian inference requires prior distributions to produce posterior probabilities. Key point: we don't have prior exoplanet data to utilize.

In a recent paper by Welbanks, et al. (2026) they note that some of the earlier claims of molecular detection on exoplanet K2-18b may be erroneous since they were able to show "numerous alternatives providing equally good or better fits." In the graph below they show that multiple hydrocarbons can produce significant overlaps.

This critique won't last long, however. Improvements in instrumentation along with the Nancy Grace and Pandora space telescopes will start clarifying the data. Clearly a Level 1 approach.

NYT Takes a Look at the White House UAP Council

The New York Times recently posted an article taking a deeper look into the White House's UAP Advisory Council along with some of their results. Composed of a veritable who's-who of cross-domain experts, the council's goal is to focus on data-driven science using the "same rigor" of any scientific endeavor.

Oddly, the article didn't reveal much other than what had been reported earlier in the last couple of months regarding the latest UAP data releases along with skeptical comments and some competing organizational in-fighting. The NYT quoted that the current results were "low-hanging fruit." 

Regardless, here's the makeup of the panel (led by Avi Loeb):

• Liberty Capito - professor of Data Science 
• Carol Cleland - professor of Philosophy
• Richard Cloete - Computer scientist at Harvard University
• Omer Eldadi - Psychologist a
• Tim Gallaudet -retired Navy admiral
• Robin Hanson - professor of Economics
• Ross Howard - producer of the Event Horizon podcast 
• Kevin Knuth - professor of Physics
• Ravi Kopparapu - NASA Goddard Space Flight Center expert 
• Ben Lamm - CEO Of Colossal Biosciences
• Jacob Haqq Misra- Meteorology and Astrobiology specialist
• Devesh Nandal - postdoctoral fellow at the Center for Astrophysics
• Garry Nolan - professor of Pathology
• Michael Shermer -publisher of Skeptic magazine
• Peter Skafish - Anthropologist
• Matthew Szydagis - professor of Physics 
• Jennice Vilhauer - clinical Psychologist

As I've always noted while following this phenomena for over 50 years now, if UAP technologies are in the hands of governments, there is no way they are going to reveal anything substantial to the public. Why would they? It would, of course, provide significant technological advantages that you wouldn't want other governments to know about. But at least there is an attempt to move public opinion from wild speculation to something more at a Level 2 approach. Time will tell.

I think Michal Shermer said it best in the article - "many sightings are 'stuck in this kind of low-information zone' where 'you can’t quite make out what’s going on.'" 

New White House UAP Council

Avi Loeb, the Harvard astronomer who has publicly pushed the envelope on extraterrestrial life has been approached by the Trump White House to run a new UAP council that will study and advise on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena.

Loeb has served in government functions before such as Trump’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. The council will be made up of a number of other Harvard staff, some astrobiologists and some miscellaneous members. The intention is to coordinate UAP investigations and help with the “timely coordination of declassification of UAP-related information.” It will be interesting to see if much can come of this!!

SKA Could Detect Earth's Cell Phone Network within 5 Lightyears

As the Square Kilometer Array (SKA) radio telescope arrays continue to build out in Australia and South Africa, the potential resolution of this massive radio astronomy project is enormous - enhancing the possibility of discovering extraterrestrial signals. Some current estimates propose that leakage radiation from something like Earth’s cellphone network could be detected within a radius of 5 light years.

You can see the SKA overall projected sensitivity (min detectable reference signal at 100 light years) in the graph below (solid green line - Trenblay et al., 2026).

Read more here: Searching for Extraterrestrial Intelligence with the SKA

Ability of world-wide radio telescopes to detect transmissions by frequency

SETI Institute Kickstarter for Scanning the Sky

What if we could create a network of independent sky scanning systems that could coordinate the observations of anomalous astronomical events that might hint at extraterrestrial activity? As they note - “A potential discovery must be carefully authenticated by independent organizations and different instruments before it is announced as credible evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence.”

Well, it seems the SETI institute has partnered with SkyMapper - a Kickstarter funded device that links to a global network of independent, separated instruments - each running on a rooftop anywhere in the world. 

You can find out more here: https://www.seti.org/news/disclosure-needs-data/

Extraterrestrial Life on Tidally Locked Planets

Can small, red dwarf stars (M class) really support extraterrestrial habitability? Red dwarf stars are much cooler (~10% brightness) and smaller (10 to 50%) than our Sun. This pushes the habitable zone for planets much closer to the parent star of the system which, in turn, causes planets to become tidally locked (one hemisphere always facing the star like the Moon is to Earth). Also, being closer the planets are more exposed to infrared and flaring radiation. Yet, they have incredible lifespans in trillions of years (vs. the Sun’s 10B year lifespan) and comprise about 75% of all stars in the galaxy.

Gale & Wandell (2017) argue that perhaps tidally locked planets orbiting red dwarfs may develop life in zones of “continuous illumination with a considerable component of photosynthetic 400-700 nm radiation. This is analogous to the lush summer growth of vegetation on Earth, at very high latitude.” You can read the paper here: The Potential of Planets Orbiting Red Dwarf Stars to Support Oxygenic Photosynthesis and Complex Life

With the large number of red dwarfs, maybe we’ll discover biotic markers in future missions!

Does a Civilization have a Limit to Growth?

Growth of a planetary population, technology, productivity and energy consumption seems unstoppable - scaling to infinity over some finite time (millions of years??) When and if Earth becomes one large connected “city” the growth hits a wall, or, as Wong & Bartlett (2022) suggest - an asymptotic burnout - aka, civilization hits a limit of growth and either collapses or awakens. Is this the Fermi paradox and why we don’t see other extraterrestrial civilizations in the galaxy? Have most collapsed?

Read more here: Asymptotic burnout and homeostaticawakening: a possible solution to theFermi paradox?

Could Extraterrestrials be Spreading Biological Life?

It is a well-known hypothesis (but not fully agreed upon) by astrobiologists that extraterrestrial life could have hitched a ride on some interstellar cometary objects like 3I/Atlas (the unusual elongated comet that entered our Solar System recently) that have entered ours and other solar systems. This theory is known as panspermia - and both Carl Sagan and Avi Loeb have postulated that the biological seeds of intelligent life may have arrived via these comets spreading the material in stellar systems.

Loeb has even suggested that extraterrestrials may be spreading life across the galaxy as a fertilization mission. You can read more here: Did 3I/ATLAS Deliver Extrasolar Life to Our Backyard?

Could Different Arrangements of Matter Become Conscious?

Well, it is interesting when philosophers jump in on extraterrestrial life. Pober & Schwitzgebel (2026) published a recent and very speculative paper arguing on how extraterrestrial consciousness could arise in different arrangements of matter (think of what biological constructs are needed for human consciousness to arise). Their logic is simple:

  P1: The universe contains at least a thousand different behaviorally sophisticated species
  P2: These species have substantially different substrates

  P3: Some of these species with substantially different substrates are conscious

  Conclusion: Therefore, consciousness is possible in substantially different substrates

Adding some other thoughts - each galaxy has over a million planets - combine to that a relaxation of the constraint that it must be the same substrates as on Earth. Interesting to speculate on, but in terms of the levels of argument, it's a Level 4.

You can read the paper here: Substrate Flexibility and the Copernican Principle of Consciousness

Detected Habitable Planets?

Yesterday I mentioned Barnard's Star having four exoplanets but none of them are in the estimated habitable zone defined for a red M-dwarf parent star. So, where are we currently at for detection of potentially habitable planets? The current estimates are approximately 70 out of 5000+ detected exoplanets that are more likely to have a rocky composition and support surface liquid water. These would have varying parent stars that would typically be like our own Sun (G-dwarf) or cooler (K or M dwarfs)

One of the Closest Stars to Earth has 4 Exoplanets

Did you know that Barnard’s Star - one of the closest stars to Earth at approximately 6 light years away currently has 4 confirmed exoplanets. Also known as Proxima Ophiuchi (in the constellation of Ophiuchus), it is a small, red M-dwarf star of about 16% the mass of the Sun and 18% of the Sun’s radius. These 4 small exoplanets are only about 30% the size of Earth and orbit Barnard’s Star about every 2.5 to 7 days (moving outward to each planet). Unfortunately these exoplanets are not the in the star’s habitable zone - but being only 6 light years away, it is a prime candidate for continuing exoplanet research.

A Brief History of SETI

Universe Today has done a very good series this month on SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence). It’s well written and worth the read.

Here is the first part: A Brief-ish History of SETI. Part 1: "Where is Everybody?"

Exoplanet Explosive Growth

Well, recent news has shown the explosive growth in exoplanet discoveries in the last year - up over 650 since last Sept. The TESS (Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite) output an all sky mosaic show both confirmed and potential exoplanet (5000+) systems. We’re now close to estimating that every star in the Milky Way has, on average, at least 2 planets - that’s 200+ billion planets in our own galaxy alone.

Certainly a Level 1 view of exoplanet science!

Are we really Nearing Disclosure of Extraterrestrials?

Well, the title says it all - can we really be near something definitive? There's been a lot of noise in the press recently starting with the Trump administration's announcements from the Dept of War and some more initial analysis here. Nevertheless, the first point to call out is that there are no references to the terms of “UFOs” (other than a small tag) or “extraterrestrials” in the government release notes. All text points to UAPs (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena) - which implies the releases are still in the realm of anomalous objects that could originate anywhere. The primary quote being:

"The American people can now access the federal government's declassified UAP files instantly. The latest UAP videos, photos, and original source documents from across the entire United States government are all in one place – no clearance required. While past administrations sought to discredit or dissuade the American people, President Trump is focused on providing maximum transparency to the public, who can ultimately make up their own minds about the information contained in these files."

 

Granted, you can search the released declassified documents for those terms. As far as I’ve been able to tell - nothing earth shattering has appeared. Both The Conversation and The Skeptic did a nice job reviewing this early release (from which I have to quote one author noting - “...absolutely nothing stands out beyond the usual blurry photographs, grainy videos, artist reconstructions, and countless stories about weird things in the sky and in space.”)  Scientific American also did a short overview noting a statement from Sean Kirkpatrick, "There’s nothing unexpected in their release. And without any analysis or context, [it] will only serve to fuel more speculation, conspiracy and armchair pseudoscience, particularly from the playhouse politics theater company..."

No matter your political affiliation it is readily apparent that the administration is attempting to appease critics complaints about not following through on some of the early campaign promises. This doesn’t imply, however, that national security would be compromised in any way if the US or any government entity had some strategic advantage from anything technological be it from other countries or extraterrestrial in origin - this being the most problematic part of disclosure.  

So here we sit again with just as much (if not more) speculation regarding extraterrestrial life. It's difficult to note whether this stands in Level 3 or Level 2 of the exoastronomy categorization - but, it mostly fits in Level 2 due to government classification and documentation.

You can go out and download the released material directly (as have thousands on social media that are full of speculation). I’m sure there’s more to come.  

Science Fairs and Exoastronomy

Last month I had the honor again to be a judge at the regional high school science fair comprised of students from the full metro area of the Twin Cities. There were over 200 projects across all disciplines from over 50 high schools (so great to see). Nevertheless, each year I'm usually disappointed (not in the projects) due to the fact that there is typically only one astronomical project in the program.

However, this year was an exception with 6 projects having astronomical ties including 2 that were specifically about exoplanet research. For me personally it was exciting to be able to interview the students on their approach and research. In the exoastronomy realm, one of the two projects focused on improving Apodized Pupil Lyot Coronagraphs (APLC) for direct exoplanet imaging and the other on comparisons of the K2-18b exoplanet's DMS spectra with other known spectral signatures in the HITRAN database.

Just amazing to see the creativity and good science coming out of our high schools!

Trump Continues the Stir about Alien Life

Whitehouse.gov Photo

Well, not to be outdone, President Trump announced he would be releasing government files about aliens, UFOs and extraterrestrial life just after Obama had mentioned the possibility of alien life in an oddly  stated verbal attack. Thursday he stated on Truth Social:

 

Based on the tremendous interest shown, I will be directing the Secretary of War, and other relevant Departments and Agencies, to begin the process of identifying and releasing Government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and unidentified flying objects (UFOs), and any and all other information connected to these highly complex, but extremely interesting and important, matters.

This places obvious pressure on the defense department to release something - but, I'm not convinced there will be much. If the black budgets of the overall US spend on defense (est to be about 7% of $1 trillion) had any advanced technologies that gave the US any strategic advantage, they're not going be transparent about it.

There's a lot more to say about this in a future post regarding some of the nonsense surrounding the AARO and other attempts of disclosure. More to come.

Obama Creates a Stir about Aliens

As usual, social media went into a frenzy about UFOs, aliens and extraterrestrial life this week when Bryan Tyler Cohen interviewed former president Barack Obama. What was missed by most was that Cohen stated that the questions for the end of the interview were a ‘lightning round’ to give quick answers. Obama was asked, "Are aliens real?" and quickly answered, "They're real but I haven't seen them”. There was no time for him to qualify his answer except for a quip about Area 51 as Cohen jumped to the next question.

Obama has always had the position that the odds of extraterrestrial life in the universe are very high. He stated after the interview - "I was trying to stick with the spirit of the speed round, but since it's gotten attention let me clarify….Statistically, the universe is so vast that the odds are good there's life out there. But the distances between solar systems are so great that the chances we've been visited by aliens is low, and I saw no evidence during my presidency that extraterrestrials have made contact with us. Really!"

This is a typical Level 4 overreaction to the UFO and extraterrestrial conspiracy. You can watch the intervew here (the lightning question is at 43:55): 

What is the Closest Earth-like Exoplanet?

Artist View of M dwarf Exoplanet Sun

Recently I was asked this question by a friend which made me stop and ponder it for a minute. Of course, my mind jumped to my older posts on what an 'Earth-like' planet is along with the definition of a "habitable" planet (the key differentiator being Earth-like doesn't necessarily mean habitable or terrestrial).

This isn't an easy question to answer since we don't fully understand what habitable or terrestrial might look like for different exoplanet stellar systems. For example, if we're going to limit the question to exoplanets around F, G, K and M dwarf stars due to stellar lifespan (for example, bright A5V stars only have a lifespan of about 750 million years), then one current estimate is there are 65 billion terrestrial planets around these 4 classes of stars in the Milky Way galaxy. However, since cool, low mass M dwarf stars comprise 76% of the total, terrestrial exoplanets are going to be in tight, short orbits, most likely tidally locked with low UV stellar radiation. That doesn't rule out Earth-like habitable exoplanets, but that's a large unknown at this point (something we'll talk about in a future post). 

So, to get back to the question, let's pick F, G and K main sequence stars first. Using that criteria, 82 Eridani in Eridanus (visible from the southern hemisphere) is going to be the best answer for those stellar candidates. At about 20 light years away, the two planets, 82 Eridani e and f orbit a G6V star (very similar to the Sun) with a periods of 147 and 647 days potentially within the star's habitable zone. As of this writing, both fall on the edges of that habitability zone with e on in the inner edge and f on the outer edge. Also, the detected exoplanets masses are at least 4x that of Earth's. Given that, this is probably the best case for now. 

In the northern hemisphere, if you look in the constellation of Cassiopeia, the orange star Gliese 892 (stellar type K3V - cooler than the Sun) may be the closest at 21 light years. However, the main problem is the candidate exoplanet's mass at over 10x Earth's. Also, that particular exoplanet hasn't been confirmed.

Honestly, there's not much beyond this since we're dealing with more distant, brighter stars (see my mention of the Malmquist bias in my previous post). If we go back to lower mass, cooler M dwarf stars then my favorite pick is Gliese 667 in the constellation of Scorpius at 23 light years away. It is a triple star system with the third star, Gliese 667 C, having detected exoplanets. Planet e with an orbit of about 62 days and mass of about 3x that of Earth's is within the star's habitable zone. There are many other M dwarf star systems with detected exoplanets. If you're interested, you can browse the Habitable Worlds Catalog or NASA's Exoplanet Catalog to see what potential exoplanets could be candidates.

Given how difficult this question is, there just isn't a good answer yet. There are still so many assumptions along with unanswered questions as to just what extraterrestrial life is, how it may evolve and what types of stellar systems would support it. All we can do is continue to gather more data and assume life on Earth as the initial standard to measure against.

The New SETI Protocols for Discovery of Alien Life

Imagining the SETI Announcement

If you were a scientist who just happened to discover and verify the existence of extraterrestrial life, how would you proceed to announce it? What would be your proper course of action? This was the question asked by SETI scientists in the 1980s when they began to ponder how a discovery like this might unfold. By 1989 they had drafted what was called Declaration of Principles Concerning Activities Following the Detection of Extraterrestrial Intelligence, or, the First SETI Protocol (you can read it here). It was revised and renamed in 2010. 

So, now, in 2026 another revision is on the docket to be voted on by the members of the Permanent SETI Committee which is much more robust than previous versions. With the advent of social media along with more public mistrust in information, the authors have hinted at their reasons for the change: 

 

to prepare an updated version of the 2010 Declaration of Principles Concerning the Conduct of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, with the aim of preserving the enduring values of earlier documents while making them relevant to the realities of twenty-first century science, media, and public engagement. 

Having worked in industry for many years, I understand the need for protocols and processes. However, I’m not convinced that discoveries of extraterrestrials be it from SETI scientists or aliens announcing themselves publicly is going to follow the declaration’s standards. It seems that extraterrestrials and first contact may be a messy social event no matter what kinds of best practices we as humans develop. Take this statement for example:



 

SETI practitioners shall adhere to the highest ethical standards, ensuring cooperation, honesty, and integrity in all aspects of their work. They will collaborate with international legal authorities to establish clear frameworks for managing the dissemination of information about potential extraterrestrial detections and comply with relevant laws and regulations.

When dealing with an event of worldwide importance, adhering to the standards outlined are hard to imagine for something that could be this messy and chaotic. Nevertheless, it’s good to have a set of principles to drive awareness in the scientific community.

You can find the new revision in the proposal paper here.